Election Commission of India (ECI) released the poll schedule for Bihar Assembly elections amid corona pandemic. Political parties can’t conduct rallies or public meetings in view of the corona curbs. These restrictions are not deterring the political parties from plunging into electioneering for the October-November polls. Not only JD (U)-BJP alliance, opposition parties too are confident of their prospects in the elections. What is behind their confidence? A bird’s eye view of the scene in Bihar throws up some facts: A large number of migrants who returned to native villages because of corona lockdown and economic slump are struggling to survive. Lockdown has worsened the already poor economic situation of the state. The NDA government in the state has failed miserably in tackling both Covid-19 and recent devastating floods. Parties are also trying to cash in on the death of actor Sushant Singh Rajput who belonged to the state.
Apart from these, the familiar fight between caste and development will also be a major factor in the poll. The charisma of leaders of political parties and power and reach of coalition partners would hold the key for victory in any elections. In the case of NDA coalition, Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the faces of electioneering.
Its main rival RJD has only one popular leader, Lalu Prasad Yadav. He too is in jail in the fodder case with no chance of coming out anytime soon. The RJD is afraid of going to polls with his face. Since Lalu’s wife Rabri Devi too is an accused in the fodder case and other scams, the party is planning to project their son Tejaswi Yadav as its leader. On the other hand, the ruling coalition is already going ahead in the election campaign with the posters of Nitish and Modi. In a sign of unity between the two parties, Nitish picture is seen on the same posters with Modi in contrast to the situation in 2005-2013, when he refused to share dais with Modi even as his party was in alliance with BJP.
The parties are yet to hammer out allocation of seats in the 243-seat Bihar Assembly. It is expected that there will be a problem in the BJP-JD (U) alliance on 51 seats. Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Jana Shakti (LJS) is going to contest on its own projecting his son Chirag Paswan as chief ministerial candidate. The party, which is part of NDA at the Centre, however, snapped its ties with Nitish in the state. It is to be seen whether the BJP can patch up JD (U) and LJP to prevent split in votes.
On the other hand, there is little progress on Mahaghata Bandhan of RJD and Congress. Left parties are also expected to join this grand alliance. Yadavs, who constitute 14% of population and Muslims (17%) are RJD’s major vote bank. Nitish’s Kurmi community accounts for only 2% of voters. Though he can bank on 16% of SCs, with the decision of LJP to go it alone, Nitish has a tough task ahead to prevent splitting of Dalit votes. Nitish is pinning his hopes on BJP support base and Modi’s charisma.
Although young Tejaswi Yadav is no match to veterans Modi and Nitish, the opposition is confident of its win due to the widespread discontent among people over the failure on Covid-19 front and unemployment. They believe that people are angry with NDA both at the Centre and in the state. For its part, NDA is hoping that people will never elect the RJD which is tainted by several scams. Anyway, Bihar results are going to have a far reaching impact on the national politics.