Both ruling and opposition parties in Andhra Pradesh are engaged in a huge political gamble. It is common for any political party to chalk out its strategies, whether in office or not, to increase its influence as much as possible among all the people and in all regions of the state. Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy stirred the hornet’s nest in the name of three capitals. Unwittingly, opposition TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu appears to have fallen in the trap. Both leaders are playing the game while calculating region-wise political dividends.
For Jagan, it’s 4+ and 2-
The Chief Minister planned to reap political benefits in North Andhra and Rayalaseema by his three capitals gamble. He expected that the move will be opposed in Krishna and Guntur districts. But this opposition will be outweighed by the overwhelming support in three North Andhra districts. He also expects overall support for the proposal in his Rayalaseema turf, despite some reservations concerning distance. Similarly, Nellore and Prakasam districts are also expected to throw their support behind Jagan because of caste equations.
The ruling party feels that there is a total support to three capitals in East Godavari while some slight opposition in West Godavari. Overall, YSRCP thinks that four districts are in its favour while two-and-a-half districts are against three capitals. The ruling party feels that the presumed neutral stance of greater Rayalaseema benefits it politically.
Having smelt this political windfall, the YSRCP government is pressing ahead with its decentralization brushing aside objections from the judiciary and attacks by TDP.
For Naidu, it will be 3+, 3- and others unknown
TDP too is boldly fighting three capitals move taking a huge political risk. Naidu is highly confident that the party will gain the support of Krishna, Guntur and West Godavari districts. At the same time, he is experienced enough to recognize the loss the party faces in North Andhra districts for opposing executive capital in Visakhapatnam. But the party is unable to assess the impact in East Godavari and Prakasam districts. It hopes that as time goes by, it can consolidate its position in these two districts.
The party is completely clueless on the mood of Nellore and Rayalaseema. There seems neither enthusiasm on the proposed High Court in Kurnool nor strong opposition on shifting of capital to Vizag in Seema. Instead of trying to gauge the mood of these districts, Naidu is now focusing all his energies on Amaravati agitation.
Thus, the TDP chief is moving ahead with the assumption of political benefits in three districts, losses in three districts and uncertainty in rest of the districts. Let’s see where this political game by Jagan and Naidu takes them.
