In the recent voter opinion poll revealed by the ABP-C voter survey, the BJP is likely to garner mixed results in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, West Bengal and Puducherry. However, a survey conducted by Times Now-C Voter in the first week of February found that the BJP will have to fight a neck to neck with Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal. On the other hand, two per cent of the votes are expected to go to the BJP. When it comes to the latest ABP-C voter survey, predictions are that the Mamata Banerjee government will remain in power again in West Bengal, while the Left which is currently in power in Kerala is expected to continue, with the BJP set to come to power in Assam. Until recently, the BJP had a chance in Congress-ruled Puducherry, now with the current AIADMK-BJP alliance which might lose power in Tamil Nadu, the Congress-DMK alliance has decided to form a government. Now if the results are out as per the survey, the BJP will come to power in Puducherry with 30 assembly seats. The BJP has no loss in terms of states and union territories but will have to lose a key state in the south as a matter of priority. It may be noted that the survey is only an estimate and that the results are due on May 2.
The survey details are as follows
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee TMC (AITC) will win 148-164 seats, BJP 92-108 seats and Congress 31-39 seats, the survey said. In terms of percentage, the TMC would get 43 per cent, the BJP 38 per cent and the Congress 13 per cent. In Kerala, LDF 83-91, UDF 47-55, BJP and independents will get a maximum of 2 seats. The survey concluded that there would be a change of power in Tamil Nadu this time. The DMK, the Congress alliance is projected to win 154-162 seats, the ruling AIADMK, the BJP alliance 58-66 seats and the others 8-20 seats. In Assam, the BJP could win 68-76, the Congress 43-51, others 5-10, the BJP 17-21 in Puducherry, the Congress 8-12 and the others 1-3.
CM candidate turns a plus point
In Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Kerala and Assam, there is clarity regarding the CM candidate. While Stalin’s name is almost finalized from the DMK-Congress alliance in Tamil Nadu, clarity has not yet come from the BJP and AIADMK. Will Palaniswami, who is currently the CEO of Tamil Nadu, continue? What would be Sasikala’s effect on the upcoming polls? All these factors will have to be considered. It seems that this will turn out to be a minus for the BJP. In West Bengal, there is no possibility of a CM candidate being announced by Congress and the Left. Mamata Banerjee from TMC has been confirmed while the BJP has yet to officially announce. At present, the party is hearing the names of BJP president Dilip Ghosh and Swamikripakarananda Maharaj. This can lead to some confusion. In particular, the BJP is pinning its hopes on the anti-Mamata vote bank, Modi’s charisma and power at the Centre. The view is that this order will be a bit of a minus for the party. According to a survey conducted on the issue, 54.5 per cent of people are in favour of Mamata Banerjee and only 24 per cent are in favour of the BJP.
In Kerala
In Kerala, 38 per cent favoured LDF senior leader, CM Pinarayi Vijayan, while 27 per cent favoured Congress leader and former CM Oommen Chandy. This means that the BJP will suffer in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal as the parties have not even clarified who the CM candidate will be. But these are only predictions. On the whole, the BJP has posed a challenge to Congress at the national level in the past before the 2014 elections. Modi on our side .. and who is on your side the BJP had challenged the Congress. Opposition parties are now throwing similar challenges to the BJP in several states.
