Elections are going to be held in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam, West Bengal and Kerala in the months of April and May. Presently there is BJP-Assam Gana Parishad, Bodoland People’s Front alliance government in Assam. In Puducherry, there is a government of Secular Democratic Front (Congress, DMK). In Kerala, there is a government of Left Parties. TMC is in power in West Bengal. According to the ABC News C-Voter survey, in the coming elections BJP may lose in Tamil Nadu, the ruling parties in Kerala, West Bengal would retain power but in Assam and Puducherry, there are chances of BJP alliance.
A lot of changes have come in Tamil Nadu politics after the demise of Jayalalitha. During the last elections, the AIADMK-BJP alliance got 135 out of 234 seats with 43.7 percent votes. This time the Congress-DMK alliance is likely to get 162 seats with 41.1 percent votes. The NDA would get 98 seats with 28.7 percent votes. The Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam party of Sasikala and Kamal Hassan’s party may not have favourable results.
The AIADMK has created a record by winning consecutively in 1977, 1980 and 1984. From then to 2016 people used to give power to the two parties alternatively, which means no party was given two consecutive terms. This has been continuing for about 30 years by Tamil voters. During the 2016 elections, people gave a second term to AIADMK. During the 2011 elections, the party won 150 seats with 38.4 percent votes and in 2016 it won 135 with 40.77 votes.
There are doubts that with the absence of Jayalalitha, the functioning of the alliance and also the Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam would impact the NDA’s performance. After the death of Jayalalitha, there were allegations of corruption against Sasikala and this led the latter to jail. After Jayalalitha, she was referred to as the chinamma and she has a following of 5,000 to 10,000 in about 80 constituencies in the state. Along with them, there are a bunch of activists of AIADMK, who are likely to leave an impact on the performance of NDA.
If that happens, it can be said that it would be a big blow to the BJP because as part of its efforts to spread in the country the party says Tamil Nadu is a gateway via Telangana. Tamil Nadu will be the first state to be slipping away from BJP in 2021. There are arguments that the situation is likely to change because still there are four months for the elections.
