The by-election for the Tirupati Lok Sabha seat in the AP is provoking interest. The issue of special status, which is central to the AP rather than local issues, is likely to have a huge impact on the election results. Analysis shows that special status plays a key role even more than local issues. As an example of this, the promise made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the past that Tirupati was the venue for special status, and the NDA government at the Centre, which had suppressed it, and the struggle currently being waged by the respective parties at the centre, are coming to the fore in the Tirupati by-election. As a result, the outcome of the Lok Sabha Tirupati by-election will be determined by the issue of special status. Which party has the best chance of winning this election when the special status is the deciding factor? Which party will suffer the most? These are the most intriguing questions.
A battle between three parties
The ongoing by-election for the Tirupati Lok Sabha seat should be seen mainly as a fight between the three parties. In this by-election, the ruling YSRCP, the opposition TDP and the BJP-Janasena alliance fielded their candidates. A few more independent candidates, including the Left, have a total of more than 20 candidates vying for the seat. Dr Gurumurthy on behalf of the YSRCP, former Union Minister Panabaka Lakshmi from TDP and former IAS officer Ratnaprabha are contesting on behalf of the BJP-Janasena alliance. The Congress party, which is completely paralyzed in the state, has also fielded senior politician and Tirupati local leader Chinta Mohan as its candidate. Apart from these, there will be many independent candidates, mainly from the YSRCP, TDP and BJP-Janasena alliance. Though Chinta Mohan seems to have some chances of splitting the vote, there are arguments that it may not have a big impact on the outcome.
Prior to fielding candidates in the race
It must be said that the special status did not come to a large extent before the respective parties fielded their candidates in the Tirupati ring. However, whenever the respective parties finalize their candidates, they file their nominations and they all start campaigning, then the special status is also given entry. It has now become a matter of what strategies each party adopts on special status rather than the campaigning of candidates. Candidates are also recognizing the issue and opening their mouths to the special status, changing it in their favour and turning it into a weapon against the rival factions. With this, it goes without saying that the issue of special status has become crucial now that the issue of Tirupati development has been completely side-lined. In the light of such a situation, there is a large-scale debate on the outcome of this special status issue and which party will win in the Tirupati elections.
Tough call for the YSRCP
First of all, the ruling party YSRCP would be in a difficult situation in Tirupati. This is because the party leader YS Jagan Mohan Reddy had declared somewhat loudly in the previous general elections that if the public would bless them with 25 MP seats, they would get special status for the state from the Centre. As he put it, the YSRCP won 22 seats in the by-elections. Arguments have been heard that the YSRCP has won a majority of seats and that the state would be given special status. However, Jagan, who went on a tour to Delhi after being sworn in as the CM of Andhra Pradesh, indirectly denied that he could bring the special status. He had said that YSRCP would bring special status for the state in the face of a strong NDA government at the Centre, by any means if needed. It is safe to say that the party changed its stand on special status as a whole. With this, the analysis is that the YSRCP, which has given up its special status hopes, will have to face worse conditions in Tirupati.
Sympathy for TDP
On the other hand, when it comes to the TDP, party chief Nara Chandrababu Naidu had said that joining the BJP in 2014 would give the state a special status. Besides, Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who came to Tirupati, was able to make the same announcement. In the 2014 elections, the BJP and the TDP came to power in the state. However, even in the case of the package, it is known that the TDP has parted ways with the BJP simply because the Modi government has not given it special status and due to the prolonged delay. After that, the fight waged by Chandrababu Naidu against PM Modi, who had done injustice to the state, has impressed the AP people. However, the sympathy of the people for the TDP, which has been able to keep alive the special status movement with the half-baked members who are now in Parliament, is evident after the TDP lost the election as the struggle did not take the form of votes in the elections. It is safe to say that Tirupati’s winning horse was a TDP candidate if no irregularities were found in the Tirupati votes as the status quo.
BJP changes its stance
Meanwhile, the AP people are expressing outrage over the BJP, which has changed its mind and given a special status to the AP. Arguments are being heard that the people of Tirupati are ready to teach a hard lesson to the BJP candidate in the wake of the by-elections now taking place wherever Modi has promised special status in this order. The Janasena, which continues to be an ally of the BJP, has also joined hands with the BJP, which has been fighting for special status in the past. On the whole, Even the votes of the Pawan community, which is huge in Tirupati as a whole, are now arousing interest in the arguments that the BJP-Janasena alliance candidate Ratnaprabha has no chance. If the Tirupati election is held on the issue of special status, the BJP-Janasena joint candidate who changed his mind on the status quo, as well as the YSRCP candidate, stand no chances. Arguments are being heard that if the people are inclined towards the TDP, which is still fighting for special status, then Panabaka Lakshmi would be able to win easily.
